Tag:Vince Young
Posted on: July 10, 2008 11:27 am
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The No. 2 QB dilemma

So while much of the focus on Fantasy QBs is on the top of the rank list (and when they should be taken), a developing concern we have is about the flux of backup Fantasy passers.

No need to breakdown the top dozen Fantasy passers, but the next dozen -- for the most part -- are completely interchangeable and so close as far as potential and likely statistics go.

13. David Garrard
14. Jake Delhomme
15. Aaron Rodgers
16. Jason Campbell
17. Philip Rivers
18. Jon Kitna
19. Matt Schaub
20. Jeff Garcia
21. Vince Young
22. JaMarcus Russell
23. Trent Edwards
24. Matt Leinart
25. Tarvaris Jackson


The expectation is that at least 10 of these guys will get drafted. Which 10 is the question.

Garrard, Delhomme and Rivers are no-brainers. Rodgers is too so long as Favre doesn't come back (and if Favre does come back, then Eli Manning becomes a no-brainer ahead of Garrard and Rodgers falls off the face of the earth).

Everyone else is either a low-risk, medium-reward QB or a high-risk, high-reward option.

Jason Campbell should be good for about 200 yards and two TDs per week, but people fear his ability to grasp the West Coast offense in time for the year. A good preseason will lock him in as a good No. 2, but he won't post amazing stats.

Jon Kitna still has incredible receivers but is now playing in an offense with a running conscious. His days of chucking the rock 45 times per game each week are long gone.

Matt Schaub has the skills and the stud receiver but Houston's schedule is dreadful and Schaub and Andre Johnson are far from locks to play 16 games.

Jeff Garcia was consistent last year, but no one wants to rely on a 54-year-old quarterback with a 55-year-old receiver.

That brings me to the five wild cards of the No. 2 QB derby: Vince Young, JaMarcus Russell, Trent Edwards, Matt Leinart and Tarvaris Jackson. I think most people could take all five guys, throw 'em under a rug and just see who crawls out, but I think I like them differently than how we have them ranked.

Vince Young is like a delicious stuffed Giordano's pizza. You know you shouldn't get involved with him, but the draw to his potential is strong. Young is not only a rusher and a passer, but the Titans have added decent help in Alge Crumpler, Justin McCareins and rookie Chris Johnson that should push Young's passing totals well over 3,000 yards. If he rushes for 500 yards, the Fantasy point equivalent is that to a 4,250-yard passer in standard-scoring leagues. BUT ... those are some huge numbers to associate with a guy who threw 9 TDs in 2007.

Matt Leinart is also appealing because of his stud receiving corps and the expected decline of Edgerrin James. But how much of Kurt Warner will we see in 2008? Will Warner play whenever the Cards must score quickly? Those are opportunities Leinart needs to be a capable Fantasy passer. When Leinart did play last year, he was not Fantasy friendly at all, so a lot of people are scared to draft him.

The other three -- Russell, Edwards and Jackson -- have upside thanks to improved receiving corps (in Russell's case, Darren McFadden is reason for optimism). The potential for a 3,000-yard season is also high with these guys.

So the question I am posing to you guys is to rank the quarterbacks that we have listed 13 through 25, and target three quarterbacks you want the most. I've pretty much ranked mine above, but the three I'd target are: Garrard, Delhomme and Young.

Pass the pizza, please.
Posted on: April 8, 2008 2:05 pm
Edited on: April 8, 2008 2:14 pm
 

Projecting Vince Young

Not by popular demand, I am going to break down how I arrived at Vince Young's Fantasy projection here on CBSSports.com. Earlier on, I broke down Laurence Maroney. Since then I've had requests for Eli Manning. He's next up on the blog.

But I do quarterbacks differently than other positions, because I think it's the receivers that make the QB position what it is. So in my first batch of projections, I make the total passing yardage equal the total receiving yardage from all the receivers on the team. I know it doesn;'t work out that way in NFL stat sheets, but it's just a first draft.

So in essence, when I project Vince Young's stats, I project the Titans' receiving corps. The biggest change in Tennessee's pass game is the addition of TE Alge Crumpler, who made his bones catching short- and medium-range tosses from Michael Vick for years in Atlanta. A substantial amount of Crumpler's catches came on broken-down plays and check-down plays thanks to Vick either passing on or missing his first read. Vince Young doesn't miss many of his reads but will find it too easy to hit his new tight end for first downs. Last year, Tennessee's tight ends caught 63 passes and 51 the year before. Young will like having Crumpler around, and Fantasy owners should see a benefit in Young's stat line.

Past Crumpler, who's left? Justin Gage had a breakout 55-catch season, but I'm not sure he could do it again although he does have monster size and big hands. Roydell Williams had a couple of nice games but was too inconsistent Fantasywise. He'll still contribute to VY's bottom line. And Justin McCareins is back in Tennessee, but should be in more of a supporting role (unless the Titans bump Roydell to the slot and McCareins to the starting lineup, which might end up happening. That trio should be good for just more than double what Crumpler will give Young.

Throw in about a dozen receptions each for LenDale White and Chris Henry and some catches for the supporting staff in Tennessee (they've got some WR depth with second-year receivers Paul Williams and Chris Davis in addition to on-their-way-out guys like Brandon Jones and Mike Williams) and you end up with Tennessee's skill-position players totaling 283 receptions. By the virtue of my yardage projections, that pushes them to 3,301 yards, and I have them earmarked for 17 passing touchdowns (five for Crumpler to lead the team).

A lot of people will look at that number and say "There's no way Vince Young is a 3,000-yard passer," but I'm telling you that you cannot discount Alge Crumpler's presence and how he'll open things up for Young, way more than Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe did for him in years past. Even with modest numbers from Gage, Williams and McCareins, Young can get there (I have that trio totaling just over 1,500 yards).

But here's the catch ... Young is no lock to make 16 games. He hasn't in two seasons, so those 3,301 yards won't all be his. Kerry Collins will get a cut, too. Additionally, Tennessee's offensive line has taken a hit this offseason, losing guard Benji Olson to retirement and guard Jacob Bell to the Rams. Jake Scott will replace Bell at right guard, but the Titans have fourth-round pick Leroy Harris penciled in at left guard. It's not a bad offensive line, but it has its weaknesses, and teams will attack them.

Ultimately, I have Young getting 15 starts in 15 games with 246-of-409 passing for 2,928 yards and 15 touchdowns (all career-highs for Young) with 15 interceptions. So yes, I am saying Young will have a "career year" passing ... but it doesn't mean a monster season.

What about the rushing?

With the passing game improved, Young might not run as much as he has in the past. He actually tried running more last season but got fewer yards, a sign that opposing defenses have a much better handle of him now than when he was a rookie. As an example, the AFC South did a good job containing Young last season on the ground (just one rushing TD in those five games). Additionally, Young did not play well against 3-4 defenses last season; he has four rivals this year that line up in the 3-4 (including Baltimore and Pittsburgh) and also faces the tough run defenses of the NFC North.

I expect Young to still post nice rushing numbers for a quarterback, but not what you might hope for. I've got him running 67 times (an average of 4.5 carries per game) for just 271 yards (just a smidge over 4.00 yards per carry) and three touchdowns on the ground. Suffice to say, Tennessee will be glad to have added Crumpler just so there's one more option for Young to look at before taking off.

I've got Young as a No. 2 Fantasy QB, and these numbers might push him out of the "platoonable QB" territory.

What are your predictions for Mr. Young in 2008? Let me know by responding to this blog.
 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com