Tag:Shaun Alexander
Posted on: March 12, 2008 5:10 pm
 

Who Wants To Trade For Shaun Alexander?

We're at the point now where it's painfully clear that Shaun Alexander's days as a Seahawk are over. Sometime between now and August, he's going to get either traded or cut.

And while I expected many NFL pundits to throw their arms in the air and exclaim "Alexander's done!!" the reality is that many very educated football people have said publicly and privately that Alexander still has a year left in the tank.

If you subscribe to the theory we've come up with that running backs decline after the equivalent of eight full seasons of work (or about 2,600 carries), then you'd agree that Alexander does have a year left. Shaun has 2,176 carries over his career with about the equivalent of seven full seasons under his belt.

Now, if you subscribe to the theory that age is strictly the issue with running backs, then you'd say he's done.

Suffice to say, we think he has one year left. And with lots of other NFL folks saying so, chances are teams think so too.

So now Seattle finds themselves with a player they won't pay. Rather than feed him a huge salary, they'll cut him and not owe him much. However, if a team came along and offered Shaun Alexander a nice contract with a big offensive role and some guaranteed cash and some good incentives, he'd probably take it rather than go on the free-agent market. And Seattle would be fine with that because then they'd get something for Shaun Alexander.

With that in mind, here's a list of NFL teams that might be willing to offer Alexander a new, decent deal (at least $2M) and Seattle a draft pick or a player.

CAROLINA: Alexander could pair with DeAngelo Williams and make for a pair of 12-carry guys. The Panthers have a good O-line to aid Alexander, too. I doubt they'd give anything more than a 7.

CHICAGO:
The Bears would give Cedric Benson some competition (with a rookie taken in Round 3 to be thrown into the fray as well). The ears have dealt with Seattle before; surely they'd part with a 6.

CINCINNATI: Hometown team for Alexander and a good stop-gap RB option with Rudi Johnson with seemingly less in the tank than Alexander even though he hasn't had as many reps. Cincy could pay a 6.

DALLAS: Could be the one-year replacement for Julius Jones, and it would mean Dallas wouldn't have to spend a top pick on a running back. They might only offer a 7, though, they're not as desperate.

DETROIT: Fantasy owners should hope this happens. The Lions need someone to be the plowhorse in their new RB-heavy offense. Detroit could spend a 5 for him -- they need a good RB that bad.

HOUSTON: Could definitely use him and offer up a player to pad Seattle's depth or a pick, perhaps a 6.
Category: NFL
Posted on: March 11, 2008 4:16 pm
Edited on: March 11, 2008 5:14 pm
 

Mock Update, Rankings Update

Our SECOND Fantasy mock draft of the offseason is several rounds deep and full of surprises. Just goes to show you that even an expert draft has a few curveballs. If you'd like to follow it, you may do so here: www.sportsline.com/nfl/fantasy/stor
y/10688830


Going over my picks ...

ROUND 2: Earnest Graham

I was hoping for either Marshawn Lynch, Ryan Grant or Willis McGahee here -- any of those three would be fabulous second-round picks, but Graham was a no-brainer for me. As many of you know, I've just finished a study on him and Ryan Grant (the article is forthcoming) and how they stack up on their teams, in Fantasy Football and overall in the history of undrafted running backs. I learned a lot about Graham, and I'm probably going to target him as my No. 2 RB in several leagues this year. The only hole I found in his game was his efforts at Raymond James Stadium. Otherwise, he's about as solid as you'll get with a middle-to-late second-round pick. Darren McFadden crossed my mind, but he's going to either be a Jet or a Raider, and I don't love him in either spot. Reggie Bush is a gimmicky-type player who I'm trying to avoid, and Brandon Jacobs, as good of a player as he is, isn't a lock for 16 weeks, which means I would have to spend another pick on Ahmad Bradshaw later on. Graham is in the same mold as Jacobs without the wear-and-tear, or the overwhelming need to handcuff him.

ROUND 3: Andre Johnson

I love Johnson for 2008, especially since he's spending much of the offseason refining his game and not rehabbing injuries. I really, really wanted Larry Fitzgerald (who might end up being a top-three WR before this offseason is through), but it looks like if you don't pick in the top 30 overall, you don't get him. It was a close call between Johnson and Marques Colston, but I've picked Colston in this spot before and felt that Johnson would give me just as good production. Maybe Johnson is a smidge more injury prone. If this were a for-keeps league, I might have gone Colston. Dang it, now I have drafter's remorse. And it's MARCH. I have some problems.

ROUND 4: Wes Welker

In the past, I'd grab my third running back here, but with the 2008 draft class of RBs deep, and plenty of decent runners left on the board, my philosophy is changing. Welker fell into my lap here, picked behind the likes of Brandon Marshall and Edgerrin James. Plaxico Burress was the only other name I was considering, and when I thought about how he played while hurt last year, I didn't think twice.

POSSIBLE WR-HEAVY DRAFT STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION COMING?


If there's one thing I've caught on to, it's that there are going to be a LOT of "GOOD" running backs to pick from this year. About six will be drafted, and I'd guess another 15-to-20 are already in the NFL. By good, I mean No. 3-type runners. That said, I think the right focus in 2008 is to spend your top two picks on RBs, then raid wide receivers until the talent pool gets shallow. Then, raid the running backs and platoon at quarterback, likely with whomever slips to Round 8 or 9.



The rankings have been updated. As I've been doing all offseason long, here's a look at why who has gone where. You can find the positional rankings here: http://cbs.sportsline.com/fantasy/f
ootball/rankings
and the top 200 here: http://www.sportsline.com/fantasy/f
ootball/rankings/top200
. If you like this feature, or have a suggestion on how to improve it, please leave a comment below or email me at: dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com.

Shaun Alexander's slide continues. With Julius Jones signing in Seattle, the writing appears to be on the wall that Alexander's days there are over. Without question, his days as an every-down back in Seattle are over. Why else would Jones have signed otherwise? We're expecting Jones to start with Maurice Morris and T.J. Duckett aiding him along the way. Jones should post his best numbers in two seasons and should make the jump to low-end No. 2/top-end No. 3 Fantasy RB before this offseason ends.

Minor stuff: Adjustments/corrections made for Torry Holt and Ron Dayne. ... D.J. Hackett slides since he's not going to be in a big role next season.



TOP FIVE PLACES I WANT SHAUN ALEXANDER TO LAND IN NEXT YEAR ... FOR FANTASY PURPOSES:

1. Detroit
2. Houston
3. Chicago
4. Carolina
5. Dallas

Posted on: March 6, 2008 2:02 pm
 

Latest Mock Is Live, Rankings Updated

So we started our SECOND Fantasy mock draft of the offseason late yesterday afternoon. We're through half of the first round. If you'd like to follow it, you may do so here: www.sportsline.com/nfl/fantasy/stor
y/10688830


Here's the first round thus far:

1. LT
2. Westbrook (Surprise!)
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Steven Jackson
5. Addai

So that left me to pick at 6. After ruling out Tom Brady (hard to expect him to repeat 51 touchdowns, strong QBs are plentiful), I was down to Larry Johnson and Frank Gore. Here's how I battled it out in my head ...

Johnson's pros: Is the Kansas City offense ... runs the ball often, catches the ball, works at the goal line, will get a lot of work, but not 350 touches over a season ...

Johnson's cons: Coming off a foot injury that was misdiagnosed/misunderstood ... O-line still a mess ... QB is still a mess ...

Gore's pros: Is a huge chunk of the San Fran offense ... should be back on for a ton of work after getting lost in the shuffle somehow in 2007 ... gets goal-line carries, receptions ...

Gore's cons: DeShaun Foster just signed, he might take some reps ... health always an issue with him ...  QB is a mess ... O-line is still iffy ...

But what sold me on Gore: Mike Martz. Because I expect Martz to lean on Gore in his play calling instead of what he did in Detroit, I figure Gore will have a big year yardagewise. Touchdowns should factor in, too.

LJ's foot also scared me off. I need to know if it's a Lisfranc or not (everyone's mum on the injury). We may never know.

I'll continue to share my thoughts on my picks throughout this mock draft, and I promise to take at least one rookie running back.



The rankings have been updated. As I've been doing all offseason long, here's a look at why who has gone where. You can find the positional rankings here: http://cbs.sportsline.com/fantasy/f
ootball/rankings
and the top 200 here: http://www.sportsline.com/fantasy/f
ootball/rankings/top200
. If you like this feature, or have a suggestion on how to improve it, please leave a comment below or email me at: dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com.

T.J. Duckett goes to Seattle. When everyone I know heard this news, the first thing they asked was 'What does this mean for Shaun Alexander?' I use this analogy: Let's say your boss hired a person to help you do YOUR primary job. Assuming it's not a secretary or a college intern, chances are it means that you're not getting the job done to your boss' satisfaction. Apply that to Alexander's stature in Seattle and you have an idea of what it means. Granted, everyone in the Seattle-area papers are saying that Duckett was someone the club wanted last offseason, too, and that Alexander will still start. That's all well and good, but I'm telling you right now that he's either going to lose or has lost his goal-line job, and that's a killer since Alexander isn't a speedster anymore. Alexander is a solid No. 3 Fantasy RB (that's right -- you're BENCHING him if you start two running backs in your league); Duckett's value is up since he'll see some work in 2008, and that also affects Maurice Morris, who will likely lose some carries with Duckett around.

Javon Walker signs with Raiders. Potentially explosive risk/reward player here. If he's healthy (he passed the Raiders' physical), Walker has a shot to be a stat machine. JaMarcus Russell, as unpolished as he may be, has an absolute cannon for an arm, and Walker is a good deep-ball receiver. And the Raiders aren't expected to be in many tight, close, low-scoring games. Wouldn't surprise me if they're playing from behind a lot next year. That means lots of passing, especially with Russell at QB, and that should be good for Walker. The only addition that could make Walker even more dangerous is if the Raiders draft Darren McFadden. But his knee is a HUGE "IF." We've got him ranked as a low-end No. 3 Fantasy WR, and we have him tabbed as a potential sleeper for '08.

By the way, Russell and McFadden on the same team? Wow, Oakland would have the potential to be really, really good. If they had any semblance of a secure coaching structure in place, I'm sure they would consider taking him at No. 4. But since they don't, I expect them to pass on "DMC."

Tidbits: Marty Booker is a HUGE Fantasy winner thanks to his signing in Chicago. He has a shot at 60-to-80 receptions with a low average and maybe six touchdowns. A week ago, he wasn't ranked! Now he's 53rd among Fantasy WRs. ... Julius Jones appears headed for backupsville, which hurts his Fantasy value. Still has upside, though. ... Aaron Stecker stays in New Orleans, buried on their RB depth chart. Not good. ... Also not good for Pierre Thomas. ... Tatum Bell and Mewelde Moore creep into the top 70 RBs. ...

Posted on: January 18, 2008 10:08 am
 

Shaun gone?

I read an interesting blog from Tacoma News Tribune writer Frank Hughes, who speculates that Shaun Alexander's days in Seattle are numbered.

Here is a link:

http://blogs.thenewstribune.com/sea
hawks/2008/01/17/alan_faneca_not_co
ming_to_the_seahawks

Here is part of the blog text:

In listening to him, I would also say that it seems to me there is no way Shaun Alexander is coming back. Holmgren talked extensively about the need to have a running back that can do all three facets of his job well. He said that you can get away from that if you are exceptional at one, as Shaun was in 2005. But when you are only average, you can't be poor at pass catching and blocking and get away with it. When I think back to what he said at his press conference on Wednesday, about Shaun being able to be productive again, I think that maybe he was answering the question, but maybe not entirely forthcoming. Maybe he was saying Shaun can be productive ELSEWHERE, a precursor to trading him.

Interesting interpretation from Hughes, and he might be right. The fact is, Alexander is up there in age and played like a 30-plus-year-old running back last year. After the first couple of weeks, he barely showed flashes of the MVP runner Fantasy owners fell in love with in the early 2000s. On top of that, he's still dealing with foot and wrist injuries. And on top of THAT, Seattle is paying through the nose to have him.
In a perfect world, I would imagine that Seattle would deal him for a first-day draft pick. But the reality is that no one out there would pay such a price for a running back who looks as if he's lost a few steps. One could argue that Alexander could be transformed into a physical power rusher, but his recent "cracked" injuries would drive me away.

I think Seattle will likely bring in competition for Alexander this offseason, and if the competition can sustain drives and gain more than 2 yards a pop, Alexander's role will really be reduced. But they can't cut him, or at least I don't think they can as they still owe him plenty of money from their 8-year, $62 million extension.

One thing's for sure: He's no longer a first-round pick. That said, I ask you: Where would you feel comfortable drafting Shaun Alexander in 2008 drafts?

 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com