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Tag:Alge Crumpler
Posted on: April 8, 2008 2:05 pm
Edited on: April 8, 2008 2:14 pm
 

Projecting Vince Young

Not by popular demand, I am going to break down how I arrived at Vince Young's Fantasy projection here on CBSSports.com. Earlier on, I broke down Laurence Maroney. Since then I've had requests for Eli Manning. He's next up on the blog.

But I do quarterbacks differently than other positions, because I think it's the receivers that make the QB position what it is. So in my first batch of projections, I make the total passing yardage equal the total receiving yardage from all the receivers on the team. I know it doesn;'t work out that way in NFL stat sheets, but it's just a first draft.

So in essence, when I project Vince Young's stats, I project the Titans' receiving corps. The biggest change in Tennessee's pass game is the addition of TE Alge Crumpler, who made his bones catching short- and medium-range tosses from Michael Vick for years in Atlanta. A substantial amount of Crumpler's catches came on broken-down plays and check-down plays thanks to Vick either passing on or missing his first read. Vince Young doesn't miss many of his reads but will find it too easy to hit his new tight end for first downs. Last year, Tennessee's tight ends caught 63 passes and 51 the year before. Young will like having Crumpler around, and Fantasy owners should see a benefit in Young's stat line.

Past Crumpler, who's left? Justin Gage had a breakout 55-catch season, but I'm not sure he could do it again although he does have monster size and big hands. Roydell Williams had a couple of nice games but was too inconsistent Fantasywise. He'll still contribute to VY's bottom line. And Justin McCareins is back in Tennessee, but should be in more of a supporting role (unless the Titans bump Roydell to the slot and McCareins to the starting lineup, which might end up happening. That trio should be good for just more than double what Crumpler will give Young.

Throw in about a dozen receptions each for LenDale White and Chris Henry and some catches for the supporting staff in Tennessee (they've got some WR depth with second-year receivers Paul Williams and Chris Davis in addition to on-their-way-out guys like Brandon Jones and Mike Williams) and you end up with Tennessee's skill-position players totaling 283 receptions. By the virtue of my yardage projections, that pushes them to 3,301 yards, and I have them earmarked for 17 passing touchdowns (five for Crumpler to lead the team).

A lot of people will look at that number and say "There's no way Vince Young is a 3,000-yard passer," but I'm telling you that you cannot discount Alge Crumpler's presence and how he'll open things up for Young, way more than Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe did for him in years past. Even with modest numbers from Gage, Williams and McCareins, Young can get there (I have that trio totaling just over 1,500 yards).

But here's the catch ... Young is no lock to make 16 games. He hasn't in two seasons, so those 3,301 yards won't all be his. Kerry Collins will get a cut, too. Additionally, Tennessee's offensive line has taken a hit this offseason, losing guard Benji Olson to retirement and guard Jacob Bell to the Rams. Jake Scott will replace Bell at right guard, but the Titans have fourth-round pick Leroy Harris penciled in at left guard. It's not a bad offensive line, but it has its weaknesses, and teams will attack them.

Ultimately, I have Young getting 15 starts in 15 games with 246-of-409 passing for 2,928 yards and 15 touchdowns (all career-highs for Young) with 15 interceptions. So yes, I am saying Young will have a "career year" passing ... but it doesn't mean a monster season.

What about the rushing?

With the passing game improved, Young might not run as much as he has in the past. He actually tried running more last season but got fewer yards, a sign that opposing defenses have a much better handle of him now than when he was a rookie. As an example, the AFC South did a good job containing Young last season on the ground (just one rushing TD in those five games). Additionally, Young did not play well against 3-4 defenses last season; he has four rivals this year that line up in the 3-4 (including Baltimore and Pittsburgh) and also faces the tough run defenses of the NFC North.

I expect Young to still post nice rushing numbers for a quarterback, but not what you might hope for. I've got him running 67 times (an average of 4.5 carries per game) for just 271 yards (just a smidge over 4.00 yards per carry) and three touchdowns on the ground. Suffice to say, Tennessee will be glad to have added Crumpler just so there's one more option for Young to look at before taking off.

I've got Young as a No. 2 Fantasy QB, and these numbers might push him out of the "platoonable QB" territory.

What are your predictions for Mr. Young in 2008? Let me know by responding to this blog.
Posted on: March 3, 2008 4:27 pm
 

STOP THE FREE AGENCY MADNESS!!!!!

Busy day as it pertains to free agency. Busy weekend, too. Obviously, our rankings have changed a little bit.

As I've been doing all offseason long, here's a look at why who has gone where in our Fantasy Football Player Rankings. You can find the positional rankings here: http://cbs.sportsline.com/fantasy/f
ootball/rankings
and the top 200 here: http://www.sportsline.com/fantasy/f
ootball/rankings/top200
.


Michael Turner picks Atlanta as his new home. Actually, Atlanta picked him, and it sounds like no one else out there chased after Turner like the Falcons. He'll be a minimum 15-carry-per-game guy with some receptions, which puts him in a good class as far as Fantasy RBs go. However, he'll also be on a team with a weak offense and a bad offensive line (as of now). We nailed him as a low-end No. 2/top-end No. 3 Fantasy RB at the start of the offseason; that's exactly where he is now. His signing also knocked Warrick Dunn way down the Fantasy rank lists. I did not think Atlanta was a serious suitor for Turner.

Donte Stallworth, welcome back to Fantasy relevance.
Stallworth signed a long-term deal with the Browns and should fit in as their No. 2 receiver opposite Braylon Edwards. That's actually a better spot for him than third banana with the Patriots. Cleveland should fling the ball plenty, and Stallworth will end up doing better in single coverage with the Browns than with the Pats, where he hardly got a look. He'll be a low-end No. 2/top-end No. 3 Fantasy WR. By the way, this is very good news for Derek Anderson. Both Stallworth and Anderson climbed in our rankings.

Bernard Berrian gets to be a No. 1. The Vikings overpaid for Berrian, but they're not going to be ripped off entirely. Berrian has excellent speed and deep-ball skills and will absolutely help Minnesota set up a passing identity. He'll be around a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. Tarvaris Jackson got a nudge up in the rankings. Berrian's presence will also partially offset the "eight-in-the-box" factor Adrian Peterson was not hoping to deal with.

Javon Walker's release (temporarily?) stings him. The Broncos' cut of Walker was bad news for his Fantasy value as the one-time No. 1 WR is now 40th at the position in our rankings. The good news? There's room to move up. The better news? Walker reportedly has many suitors. If he signs quickly and for a nice amount guaranteed, it will mean that someone out there believes he can still be a difference maker. If it's with the right team, he could return to being a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. Philadelphia would be an outstanding landing spot.

Ca-rrrrump!
Alge Crumpler's signing in Tennessee should buy him at least one more year of Fantasy relevance. He has 700-yard potential, but with the cavalcade of mediocre receivers out there, he could go either way of that mark. My guess is that he barely tops it with five touchdowns, making him a low-end No. 1/top-end No. 2 Fantasy TE. He will help Vince Young's numbers, but not enough to put Young past Matt Schaub or David Garrard.

Niners WRs can't crack the top 50. Isaac Bruce finds a new home with his old offensive coordinator, and he slides. Arnaz Battle slides as a domino effect of Bruce signing with the Niners. And the worst part is that even if Shaun Hill is named the starting QB, these receivers aren't expected to post big numbers. Darrell Jackson holds steady, by the way. Also, if it was 2001, the Niners would have an outstanding WR corps.

Kicker movement: With Stallworth going to Cleveland and the Browns' offensive expectation on the rise, Phil Dawson is now a "two-dollar kicker." That's a nice name for a kicker who won't be a waiver wire add-n-drop. It also puts him in the top five. ... Josh Brown in St. Louis is also nice. He should have a strong year kicking indoors at least nine times a season. ... Rob Bironas is up a smidge, as is Ryan Longwell thanks to their teams' recent additions.

Minor changes for the better. Thomas Jones is up thanks to Alan Faneca coming to the Jets. Now the left side of that O-line rivals Minnesota's left side. D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Faneca and Nick Mangold should be a tough trio to stop, and Jones will benefit from that ... well, so long as he's alone in the Jets' backfield ... Josh McCown's signing with Miami locks him in as a desperation No. 2 Fantasy QB. That put him on the Fantasy QB map. ... Billy Volek cracks the top 40 by virtue of his re-signing with the Chargers. He might be in play as a No. 2 Fantasy QB for the start of the season depending on Philip Rivers' rehab from a torn ACL. ... Darius Walker gets a nudge up with Turner not signing in Houston.  ... Drew Bennett cracks the top 80 with Isaac Bruce heading out of St. Loo. ... Other UPs: Visanthe Shiancoe, Jeff King. ... The Eagles, Niners and Browns DSTs made some nice changes and are now decent sleepers.

Minor changes for the worse. Jesse Chatman has fallen as he's still without a team. Same thing for Jason Elam. Same thing for David Patten. Same thing for Eric Johnson. ... The Titans DST is bleeding D-linemen, so they're falling a little, especially with other DSTs moving up.



What do these free-agent signings tell us about what teams are looking at come draft-time? Quite a bit, actually.

For instance, the Falcons' signing of Michael Turner takes them out of the Darren McFadden sweepstakes. That combined with Chris Redman re-signing makes it look like Matt Ryan will be their guy at No. 3 overall.

You could almost say the same thing about Oakland when they re-signed Justin Fargas, but they could still take McFadden. They probably won't take Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey, however, thanks to their re-signing of DL Tommy Kelly.

But if McFadden makes it to the Jets, he could really dominate behind that O-line (and Thomas Jones would suffer).

The Rams look like a buyer of a wide receiver at the top of Round 2. My guess is that they're crossing their fingers that Limas Sweed is still out there. If Tennessee signs D.J. Hackett and the Bears sign someone to play WR, they might get their wish. Minnesota is out now that they signed Berrian. They won't trade out of the No. 2 overall spot where they're guaranteed someone named Long (the club cut DE James Hall last week, opening the door for Chris Long, perhaps).
Posted on: March 3, 2008 4:26 pm
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Posted on: February 21, 2008 2:20 pm
Edited on: February 22, 2008 9:26 am
 

More Fantasy Rankings Changes

We just put out our newest player rankings. You can find the positional rankings here: cbs.sportsline.com/fantasy/football
/rankings
and the top 200 here: www.sportsline.com/fantasy/football
/rankings/top200


Here's what's changed:

Travis Henry restructures to stay with the Broncos. He shoots up, Selvin Young and Andre Hall plummet. When the 2007 season ended, we felt that Selvin Young would be the best man to run the ball for the Broncos. We also thought Henry would get cut after the drug test fiasco that messed with his head, as well as his sprained knee. The 2008 draft is deep at running back; we figured Denver would pounce on a big man via the draft and pair him with Young. Oops. Instead, Henry agreed to a new deal (terms not disclosed but probably not flattering). The Broncos would be fools to restructure his deal and then not use him, so now the expectation is that Henry will get in the neighborhood of 15 touches per game including goal-line work. That's not bad at all, providing he can stay healthy. In turn, Selvin Young slips bigtime, and Andre Hall is barely on the radar, especially after getting arrested on a driving charge (not a DUI).

Late-round WRs on the move. We had Justin Gage too low to begin with, so we bumped him up. He's going to get some nibbles in free agency. Demetrius Williams and Drew Carter also made the top-80 Fantasy WR list, bumping a currently unemployed Muhsin Muhammad, who will likely find a spot on the list again soon. Terry Glenn was also taken off, also possibly temporarily.

Tony Gonzalez gains a buck in auction value.
No big news here. Just wanted to get him some separation from the rest of the second tier of tight ends.

Alge Crumpler still down, but should rebound. The cutting of 'Crump' will likely be a good thing for his Fantasy value as he'll land with a contending team that will intend to use him. Might mean 700 yards and five touchdowns. A lot of teams are interested in him. The NFL draft is very weak at tight end this year ... I think.

What about DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams? Frankly, we were expecting Foster to either take a backseat role in Carolina or find himself elsewhere. He has since been cut and will play for a new team in 2008. As for Williams, we still expect him to share the ball with someone next season even though he's a former first-round pick with tons of upside. That's why neither player moved in our rankings. If the Panthers go all offseason without bringing in an additional runner to assist Williams, then he'll be moved into No. 2 Fantasy RB category.

We had some great banter on my last rankings changes blog. Looking forward to getting into more fights this time. If you see something in the rankings that look odd, or have a Fantasy Football comment in general, bang it in the message board.



 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com